Situation report active Rev. 2026.9 119 reports 239 source records updated
Real Life After AGI Брифинг о выживании человечества
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Указатель источников

Повторяющиеся отчёты, официальные документы и поимённые позиции, используемые в руководстве. Каждая статья также содержит собственный полный список ссылок на уровне отдельных утверждений.

Written by
Dwight Ringdahl
Revised
Как это читать

Это реестр основных источников, а не замена ссылкам, прилагаемым к каждой статье. Изложенная позиция — это наше предложение, описывающее то, что утверждает источник. Прямая цитата — это текст, сверенный слово в слово с оригиналом. Ничто в этом руководстве не представлено как цитата, если оно не было проверено, поэтому большинство приведённых ниже записей являются изложениями.

Реестр

239 источников — 106 primary source, 44 secondary coverage, 63 research/report, 16 reported interview, 10 signed statement.

  1. 01

    Изложенная позиция Metaculus displayed a community median of 3 October 2027 for its specifically defined weakly general AI question when this snapshot was recorded; the live forecast changes over time.

    Metaculus — Community forecast, "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"

    Metaculus Primary source

    Цитируется в Прогнозная панель на главной странице

  2. 02

    Изложенная позиция Goldman Sachs raised its humanoid-robot shipment forecast to 890,000 units by 2030 and 6.5 million by 2035, sizing the resulting market at roughly $138 billion.

    Goldman Sachs — Equity research note on humanoid robotics

    247wallst.com, reporting Goldman Sachs research Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Physical labor and the humanoid robot economy

  3. 03

    Изложенная позиция Goldman Sachs Research revised its 2026 baseline humanoid-robot shipment forecast to 75,000 units and its long-range forecast to 890,000 units by 2030 and 6.5 million by 2035.

    Goldman Sachs Research — Equity research forecast on the humanoid-robot market

    24/7 Wall St Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  4. 04

    Изложенная позиция Donald Trump downplayed the AI labs' slowdown calls the following day, framing the concerns as exaggerated and emphasizing that maintaining U.S. AI leadership over rivals should take priority.

    Donald Trump — President of the United States

    Al Jazeera Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  5. 05

    Изложенная позиция Dario Amodei called in a September 2026 essay for deliberately slowing frontier AI capability gains, proposing independent evaluators inside labs and eventual international limits on recursive self-improvement.

    Dario Amodei — CEO and co-founder, Anthropic

    The Washington Post Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  6. 06

    Изложенная позиция Sam Altman said OpenAI will not pursue an IPO in 2026, citing safety concerns as a reason.

    Sam Altman — CEO and co-founder, OpenAI

    Quartz Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  7. 07

    Изложенная позиция Elon Musk publicly endorsed Amodei's call to pace frontier AI development within about an hour of the essay going up, quote-posting it in agreement.

    Elon Musk — Founder and chairman, xAI

    X (formerly Twitter) Primary source

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  8. 08

    Изложенная позиция Michael Burry disclosed large put positions against Nvidia and Palantir in his final 13F filing before deregistering Scion as an SEC-registered investment adviser, and has since warned of a possible 1987-style crash in AI stocks, though his largest recent claims come from his own Substack rather than further SEC filings.

    Michael Burry — Investor; founder, Scion Asset Management

    The Motley Fool Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  9. 09

    Изложенная позиция Council of Europe Treaty Office sources conflict on whether the Council of Europe's Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence has entered into force; the treaty office's own ratification table and independent trackers, as of early September 2026, still describe entry into force in future tense with no confirmed date listed.

    Council of Europe Treaty Office — Treaty depositary

    Council of Europe, CETS 225 ratification table Primary source

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  10. 10

    Изложенная позиция Human Rights Watch reported that CCW autonomous-weapons talks concluded without consensus after the U.S. and Russia forced removal of language on design, development, ethics, predictability, reliability, explainability, and traceability, while 76 states — a majority of the Convention's parties — now back moving to treaty negotiations.

    Human Rights Watch — News release on the CCW Group of Governmental Experts, September 2026 session

    Human Rights Watch Research/report

    Цитируется в Ground robots, humanoids, and the laws of war

  11. 11

    Изложенная позиция Jakub Pachocki published an essay days after OpenAI shipped GPT-6 "Astra" arguing no AI lab, including OpenAI, has solved alignment well enough to justify scaling at full speed.

    Jakub Pachocki — Chief Scientist, OpenAI

    The Spokesman-Review Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  12. 12

    Изложенная позиция TechCrunch reported that the $1.5 billion Bartz v. Anthropic book-copyright settlement — covering roughly 500,000 works and requiring Anthropic to destroy pirated files sourced from Library Genesis and Pirate Library Mirror — received final court approval on July 20, 2026, and that by September 2026 authors were disputing publisher and literary-agency claims against the payout pool, which the Authors Guild attributed to record-keeping confusion rather than intentional misconduct.

    TechCrunch — Reporting on the Bartz v. Anthropic settlement and its payout disputes

    TechCrunch Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  13. 13

    Изложенная позиция Unnamed diplomat said the window is getting smaller to reach an agreement, after the United States and Russia proposed late changes to draft language on lethality and on human judgment and control.

    Unnamed diplomat — Remarks on the September 2026 CCW session in Geneva

    Defense News Reported interview

    Цитируется в Ground robots, humanoids, and the laws of war

  14. 14

    Изложенная позиция Wikipedia describes Adam Beaumont, a former GCHQ chief AI officer, as interim director of the UK AI Security Institute (rebranded from the AI Safety Institute in February 2025), with Jade Leung as CTO and the UK Prime Minister's AI adviser.

    Wikipedia — Encyclopedia entry, "AI Security Institute"

    Wikipedia Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  15. 15

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 9% employment growth for electricians from 2025 to 2035 ("much faster than average"), about 72,700 annual openings, and a $63,190 median annual wage (May 2025).

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Occupational Outlook Handbook, Electricians

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Research/report

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and whyHousehold income planning for an uncertain labor market

  16. 16

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 7% employment growth for plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters from 2025 to 2035, about 42,000 annual openings, and a $63,800 median annual wage (May 2025).

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Occupational Outlook Handbook, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Research/report

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and whyHousehold income planning for an uncertain labor market

  17. 17

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 11% employment growth for heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers from 2025 to 2035, about 40,600 annual openings, and a $61,010 median annual wage (May 2025).

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Occupational Outlook Handbook, HVAC and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Research/report

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and whyHousehold income planning for an uncertain labor market

  18. 18

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 6% employment growth for elevator and escalator installers and repairers from 2025 to 2035, about 1,900 annual openings, and a $109,910 median annual wage (May 2025) — the highest of the trades it profiles.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Occupational Outlook Handbook, Elevator and Escalator Installers and Repairers

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Research/report

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and whyHousehold income planning for an uncertain labor market

  19. 19

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 18% employment growth for home health and personal care aides from 2025 to 2035, about 760,500 annual openings, and a $35,800 median annual wage (May 2025).

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Occupational Outlook Handbook, Home Health and Personal Care Aides

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Research/report

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and whyHousehold income planning for an uncertain labor market

  20. 20

    Изложенная позиция Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen finds employment of workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations is now about 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers, with no comparable gap for experienced workers, operating mainly through reduced hiring rather than layoffs.

    Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen — Stanford Digital Economy Lab / NBER, "Canaries in the Coal Mine?"

    Stanford Digital Economy Lab Primary source

    Цитируется в Entrepreneurial skills in an AI economyHousehold income planning for an uncertain labor market

  21. 21

    Изложенная позиция Torsten Slok calculates that AI-related data-center capital spending is rising from 1.4% of GDP in 2025 toward roughly 3% by 2027 — nearly twice the pace of the 2000s housing boom — and warns a cycle building this fast could unwind at a similar pace.

    Torsten Slok — Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management

    Apollo Academy, "Daily Spark" Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  22. 22

    Изложенная позиция Axios reported that Demis Hassabis moved from CEO of Google DeepMind to Chairman of DeepMind and Chief Scientist of Alphabet in an August 2026 reorganization, with Koray Kavukcuoglu promoted to SVP running DeepMind day-to-day under Sundar Pichai.

    Axios — Reporting on Google DeepMind's August 2026 leadership reorganization

    Axios Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  23. 23

    Изложенная позиция CNBC reported that Jeff Dean left Google after 27 years to found an independent company, Discovery Loop, which Google is now investing in.

    CNBC — Reporting on Jeff Dean's departure from Google

    CNBC Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  24. 24

    Изложенная позиция Paul Christiano returned to the Alignment Research Center as executive director in August 2026 after briefly serving as Head of Safety at the U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation, and later joined OpenAI's nonprofit-board Safety and Security Committee on September 9, 2026.

    Paul Christiano — Executive Director, Alignment Research Center

    LessWrong ("Returning to ARC") Primary source

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  25. 25

    Прямая цитата “if a company were to apply all the best practices currently found across the other companies, they would achieve a score of 59%”

    SaferAI — Frontier Risk Management Tracker

    tracker.safer-ai.org Research/report

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  26. 26

    Изложенная позиция OpenAI states it is a C2PA steering-committee member holding "C2PA Conforming Generator Product" status, and that as of July 31, 2026 it expanded Google DeepMind's SynthID watermarking to its audio outputs while launching a public tool and API for checking content against SynthID and Content Credentials.

    OpenAI — Content-provenance and watermarking policy page

    OpenAI Primary source

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  27. 27

    Изложенная позиция Google DeepMind disclosed whole-body manipulation success rates of 45.7–76.3% and multi-finger dexterity success of 32–92% for Gemini Robotics 2 on Apptronik’s Apollo 2, stating that "multi-finger dexterous manipulation remains challenging".

    Google DeepMind — Gemini Robotics 2 / ER 2 announcement

    DeepMind blog Primary source

    Цитируется в How AGI-era foundation models are changing what a robot body can do

  28. 28

    Изложенная позиция Microsoft reported fiscal Q4 2026 capital expenditures of $41 billion, roughly two-thirds of it short-lived assets such as CPUs and GPUs, with fiscal 2027 capex guided to keep growing year-over-year.

    Microsoft — Investor Relations

    Microsoft, FY2026 Q4 Earnings Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  29. 29

    Изложенная позиция Meta Platforms reported Q2 2026 capital expenditures of $31.1 billion and narrowed full-year 2026 guidance to $130-145 billion, against free cash flow of only $784 million that quarter, while declining to give specific 2027 capex guidance.

    Meta Platforms — Susan Li, Chief Financial Officer

    Meta, Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  30. 30

    Изложенная позиция Gallup found only 27% of Americans trust businesses to use AI responsibly, down from 31% in 2025, with trust among 18-29-year-olds falling from 30% to 20%.

    Gallup — Survey organization

    Gallup, "Americans Cool Toward AI" Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  31. 31

    Изложенная позиция Gallup found 79% of Americans now anticipate AI will reduce U.S. jobs over the next decade, up from 73% a year earlier.

    Gallup — Survey organization

    Gallup, "Americans Cool Toward AI" Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  32. 32

    Изложенная позиция European Commission the EU's Digital Omnibus amendment entered into force July 27, 2026 and pushed the AI Act's Annex III high-risk rules from August 2, 2026 to December 2, 2027, with embedded-product (Annex I) high-risk rules pushed to August 2, 2028.

    European Commission — EU executive body

    European Commission, Digital Strategy Primary source

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  33. 33

    Изложенная позиция American Federation of Musicians alleges in its amended complaint that the labels licensed members' recordings to Suno and Udio for AI training without musician compensation or credit, and are withholding settlement and licensing proceeds from artists; no damages figure has been disclosed in reporting.

    American Federation of Musicians — Plaintiff in an amended complaint against Universal Music Group, Warner Records, and Atlantic Recording

    Music Business Worldwide Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  34. 34

    Изложенная позиция Bloomberg documented an 'identity crisis' at xAI following its folding into SpaceX after a February 2026 acquisition, ahead of a planned SpaceX IPO.

    Bloomberg — Reporting on xAI's corporate restructuring into SpaceX

    Bloomberg Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  35. 35

    Прямая цитата “there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern”

    Agility Robotics — SEC filing disclosure ahead of its SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI

    SEC EDGAR Primary source

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  36. 36

    Изложенная позиция European Commission confirms that AI Act Article 50 transparency duties requiring machine-readable labeling of generated or manipulated content became fully enforceable on August 2, 2026, with fines for relevant violations reaching up to €15 million or 3% of global annual turnover.

    European Commission — FAQ guidance on Article 50 AI Act transparency obligations

    European Commission Primary source

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  37. 37

    Изложенная позиция Figure AI contributed to the assembly of 30,000 cars in 2025, according to the company's own account of its Figure 02 deployment at BMW Plant Spartanburg.

    Figure AI — Manufacturer's own release announcing Figure 03 at BMW Plant Spartanburg

    Figure AI Primary source

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  38. 38

    Изложенная позиция Agility Robotics said, in SEC filings tied to its 2026 public listing, that its Digit robot had accumulated more than 65,000 hours of operation across nine customer facilities, including Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, and Mercado Libre.

    Agility Robotics — SEC Form 425 filing (Churchill Capital Corp XI merger)

    U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Primary source

    Цитируется в Physical labor and the humanoid robot economy

  39. 39

    Изложенная позиция Morgan Stanley estimated China’s humanoid-robot market at about $2 billion in 2026, growing to $15 billion by 2030 at a 106% compound annual growth rate, with shipments reaching roughly 446,000 units by 2030.

    Morgan Stanley — Equity research note on China’s humanoid-robot market

    CNBC, reporting Morgan Stanley research Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Physical labor and the humanoid robot economy

  40. 40

    Прямая цитата “We are not going to see a robot in every home overnight”

    Morgan Stanley Research — Equity research forecast on the humanoid-robot market

    CNBC Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployedDomestic robots: capability and reality

  41. 41

    Изложенная позиция Ernie Tedeschi, Marisa Rama and Chris Cruickshank finds about 4 million Americans earned primary income as solopreneurs generating over $100,000 a year in 2023, up from the mid-2 millions in the early 2010s, with the share earning over $1 million roughly doubling from 2023 to 2025.

    Ernie Tedeschi, Marisa Rama and Chris Cruickshank — Stripe Economics, Stripe’s in-house research arm

    "The Age of the Solopreneur," Stripe Economics Research/report

    Цитируется в Entrepreneurial skills in an AI economy

  42. 42

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Census Bureau reports 5.62 million new business applications filed in 2025, up from 5.2 million in 2024 and well above the roughly 3.47 million annual average since 2005.

    U.S. Census Bureau — Business Formation Statistics

    U.S. Census Bureau Research/report

    Цитируется в Entrepreneurial skills in an AI economy

  43. 43

    Изложенная позиция J.P. Morgan Asset Management holds that the structural case for AI remains intact but that index-level exposure concentrates risk in a narrow set of mega-cap names (Magnificent Seven near 34% of S&P 500 value), and recommends diversifying into AI-adjacent sectors, geographies, infrastructure, and private markets.

    J.P. Morgan Asset Management — Market Insights team

    J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Mid-Year Outlook 2026 Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  44. 44

    Изложенная позиция Yoshua Bengio says the field is building systems it does not yet know how to control.

    Yoshua Bengio — Founder, LawZero; Professor, Université de Montréal

    Bloomberg Podcasts Reported interview

    Цитируется в The loss-of-control mechanism, step by step

  45. 45

    Изложенная позиция Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier filed the first state-led lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman personally, an 83-page complaint alleging deceptive trade practices, negligence, and product liability, including claims that ChatGPT contributed to a Florida State University shooter's planning and to user suicides.

    Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier — State of Florida v. OpenAI, Inc. and Samuel Altman

    NBC News Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  46. 46

    Изложенная позиция Patrick Butlin, Robert Long, and 18 co-authors proposes deriving indicators of possible AI consciousness from neuroscientific theories to update confidence about particular systems under significant scientific uncertainty.

    Patrick Butlin, Robert Long, and 18 co-authors — Authors, "Identifying Indicators of Consciousness in AI Systems"

    Trends in Cognitive Sciences Primary source

    Цитируется в Rights, personhood, and the moral status of AI

  47. 47

    Изложенная позиция LLM Pulse tracked roughly 20 verified OpenAI news-publisher partnerships covering more than 160 outlets in 20-plus languages, as of June 2026.

    LLM Pulse — OpenAI publisher-partnership tracker

    LLM Pulse Research/report

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  48. 48

    Изложенная позиция Lisa Cook warned that AI-driven algorithmic trading could raise correlated-trading and market-manipulation risk, and that a sustained debt-financed AI investment boom could eventually become a financial-stability concern, while also crediting AI-driven growth with supporting stability on net.

    Lisa Cook — Governor, Federal Reserve Board

    Federal Reserve Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  49. 49

    Изложенная позиция Pope Leo XIV his first encyclical calls for AI to be "disarmed," warning that concentrated control over it weakens human relationships, critical thinking, and peace.

    Pope Leo XIV — Bishop of Rome

    Magnifica Humanitas (encyclical) Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  50. 50

    Изложенная позиция Spotify and Universal Music Group announced licensing agreements enabling a new fan-made AI covers-and-remixes tool on Spotify, with direct revenue share for artists and songwriters.

    Spotify and Universal Music Group — Joint licensing announcement

    Spotify Newsroom Primary source

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  51. 51

    Изложенная позиция Boston Dynamics reversed an ethics-committee-approved sale of Spot robots fitted with flash-bang grenades to a law-enforcement supplier within days, after employees invoked the company's anti-weaponization pledge and a prior flash-bang injury to a toddler during a no-knock raid.

    Boston Dynamics — Reversal of a planned law-enforcement robot sale

    Semafor Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Ground robots, humanoids, and the laws of war

  52. 52

    Изложенная позиция Colorado General Assembly Colorado's SB 26-189, signed May 14, 2026, repeals the 2024 Colorado AI Act and replaces it with a narrower, notice-based Automated Decision-Making Technology regime, effective January 1, 2027 and enforced only by the state attorney general.

    Colorado General Assembly — State legislature

    Colorado General Assembly, SB26-189 bill page Primary source

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  53. 53

    Изложенная позиция NAVA (National Association of Voice Actors) found in its "State of Voiceover 2026" survey of 1,379 members that 21% of voice actors said they lost work directly to AI in 2026, up from 14% in 2025, while 9% reported an unauthorized synthetic clone of their voice used in a professional project.

    NAVA (National Association of Voice Actors) — "State of Voiceover 2026" member survey

    Enterprise DNA / GlobeNewswire Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  54. 54

    Изложенная позиция Geoffrey Hinton compared unregulated AI development to a fast car with no steering wheel at the 2026 Digital World Conference in Geneva, and called for immediate global regulation of superintelligent systems.

    Geoffrey Hinton — 2024 Nobel Physics laureate; former VP, Google

    avantgardenews.com Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  55. 55

    Изложенная позиция Federal Emergency Management Agency trains community volunteers in core disaster-response skills as part of a nationwide, whole-community preparedness approach.

    Federal Emergency Management Agency — Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) program

    FEMA.gov Research/report

    Цитируется в Organizing a local mutual aid group: a practical starting guide

  56. 56

    Изложенная позиция NVIDIA reported that scaling GR00T N1.7’s egocentric-video training data from roughly 1,000 to 20,854 hours "more than doubles average task completion" on dexterous manipulation tasks, without citing an independent benchmark.

    NVIDIA — GR00T N1.7 announcement

    Hugging Face / NVIDIA blog Primary source

    Цитируется в How AGI-era foundation models are changing what a robot body can do

  57. 57

    Изложенная позиция White & Case LLP Japan's AI Promotion Act, effective June 4, 2025, sets national R&D goals through a Prime-Minister-chaired strategy headquarters but imposes no prohibitions, no pre-deployment registration, and deliberately no monetary penalties for noncompliance.

    White & Case LLP — Law firm client alert

    White & Case, Insight Research/report

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  58. 58

    Прямая цитата “we identified gaps between what would be expected in established safety-engineering practice and what the safety case delivers”

    Stephen Barrett, Francisco Javier Campos Zabala, Sean P. Fillingham, Umair Siddique, James Walpole, Robin Bloomfield, and Henry Papadatos — Authors, "Lessons from External Review of DeepMind’s Scheming Inability Safety Case"

    arXiv:2604.21964 Research/report

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  59. 59

    Изложенная позиция RAND Corporation catalogs a 'moving horizon' bias across AGI-timeline surveys, in which forecasters place AGI roughly fifteen to twenty-five years out regardless of when they are asked, plus selection and framing effects.

    RAND Corporation — "Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis" report

    RAND Corporation Research/report

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  60. 60

    Изложенная позиция The Imaging Wire tracked FDA marketing authorizations for AI-enabled medical devices rising from roughly 758 by the end of 2024 to 1,039 by December 2025, with the clearance pace rising from about 21 a month in 2024 to about 30 a month in 2025.

    The Imaging Wire — AI-enabled medical device FDA authorization tracker

    The Imaging Wire Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  61. 61

    Изложенная позиция TIME reported that Eric Trump, son of the sitting U.S. president, is an investor in and newly appointed chief strategy adviser to Foundation, the Pentagon-contracted humanoid-robotics startup.

    TIME — Reporting on Pentagon contracts with humanoid-robotics startup Foundation Future Industries

    TIME Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Military humanoid and ground robots: the real state of the field

  62. 62

    Изложенная позиция Ready.gov recommends households stock cleaning supplies, non-perishable food, water, and needed prescriptions before a pandemic hits.

    Ready.gov — Pandemic preparedness guidance, U.S. Department of Homeland Security / FEMA

    Ready.gov Primary source

    Цитируется в Personal biosecurity basics

  63. 63

    Изложенная позиция Media Copilot tracked over 2,300 US and UK newsroom job cuts in the first half of 2026 alone, already about 34% ahead of full-year 2025, while cautioning that the link to AI is murky rather than directly measured — entangled with falling referral traffic and collapsing digital-ad revenue.

    Media Copilot — US/UK newsroom-layoff tracker

    Media Copilot Research/report

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  64. 64

    Изложенная позиция Andrew Ng argues AGI is decades away and has proposed a 'Turing-AGI Test' — a multi-day real-work trial — to raise the evidentiary bar above benchmark-score claims.

    Andrew Ng — Founder, DeepLearning.AI; Managing General Partner, AI Fund

    PYMNTS Reported interview

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  65. 65

    Прямая цитата “This is more evidence that society is not prepared for the potential catastrophic risks posed by AI”

    Chris Painter — Director of Policy, METR

    Winbuzzer Reported interview

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  66. 66

    Прямая цитата “We will have plenty of humanoid robots 15 years from now, but they will look like neither today's humanoid robots nor humans”

    Rodney Brooks — Professor emeritus, MIT CSAIL; co-founder, iRobot and Rethink Robotics

    The Boston Globe Reported interview

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  67. 67

    Прямая цитата “Earlier editions of our RSP defined “AI Safety Levels” with specific lists of required controls... when defining the risk mitigations needed for future levels of AI capability, we have found that providing a specific list of controls is overly rigid, and we instead prefer to focus on what sort of argument an AI developer should make”

    Anthropic — Responsible Scaling Policy, Appendix B ("Notes on ASLs")

    anthropic.com Primary source

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  68. 68

    Прямая цитата “If, during the implementation of this framework, we identify a risk we cannot sufficiently mitigate, we will pause development and deployment until the point at which mitigation practices evolve to meet the risk”

    Microsoft — Frontier Governance Framework (February 2026 update)

    microsoft.com Primary source

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  69. 69

    Прямая цитата “We are still very much at the early stages of Optimus. It's still in the R&D phase... It's not in usage in our factories in a material way”

    Elon Musk — CEO, Tesla

    Electrek Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  70. 70

    Изложенная позиция Figure said Helix 02’s new "System 0" whole-body balance controller "replaces 109,504 lines of hand-engineered C++ with a single neural prior for stable, natural motion," trained on over 1,000 hours of retargeted human motion across more than 200,000 simulated environments, and cautioned that "the results are early".

    Figure — Helix 02 announcement

    Figure AI blog Primary source

    Цитируется в How AGI-era foundation models are changing what a robot body can do

  71. 71

    Изложенная позиция Cooley LLP South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026, with extraterritorial reach for large foreign firms and a "high-performance AI" designation triggered around 10^26 cumulative training FLOPs, though the regulator is deferring most fines for at least a year.

    Cooley LLP — Law firm client alert

    Cooley, Insights Research/report

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  72. 72

    Изложенная позиция METR disclosed that its widely cited 'time horizon' capability curve applies a 35% correction to a fitted logistic curve, and that it has 'no idea' whether any model's true time horizon sits inside the reported confidence interval.

    METR — "Clarifying Limitations of Time Horizon" notice

    METR Research/report

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  73. 73

    Изложенная позиция Nathan Witkin argues METR's time-horizon benchmark rests on unrealistically clean tasks, possible data contamination from public solutions, and a small, financially incentivized human-baseline sample that inflated apparent AI acceleration.

    Nathan Witkin — Contributor, Transformer News

    Transformer News Primary source

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  74. 74

    Изложенная позиция Nature issued a formal author correction acknowledging that the original GNoME/A-Lab novelty claims were 'subject to misinterpretation,' after outside chemists found roughly two-thirds of the announced 'new' compounds were already-known structures misidentified by novice-level X-ray diffraction analysis.

    Nature — Peer-reviewed journal, author correction

    Nature Research/report

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  75. 75

    Изложенная позиция Jeremy Grantham calls the AI-driven market the most expensive in American history by market-cap-to-GDP and, applying his own two-sigma bubble framework, sees a plausible peak-to-trough decline of around 70% with highly uncertain timing.

    Jeremy Grantham — Co-founder, GMO

    Bloomberg Reported interview

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  76. 76

    Изложенная позиция Bank for International Settlements found AI-related investment surging as a share of GDP and concluded that macro/financial-stability risk currently looks moderate only if AI firms hit substantial profit targets, while flagging a widening equity-versus-debt-market valuation gap and growing debt/private-credit financing of AI capex.

    Bank for International Settlements — Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr and Daniel Rees, authors

    BIS Bulletin No. 120 Research/report

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  77. 77

    Изложенная позиция The Motley Fool found the Magnificent Seven reached about 34.3% of S&P 500 market capitalization by December 2025, up from roughly 12.3% in 2015, and contributed about 42% of the index's 2025 total return.

    The Motley Fool — Investment analysis, reporting Yahoo Finance market data

    Yahoo Finance / The Motley Fool Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  78. 78

    Изложенная позиция Megan Garcia sued Character.AI, its founders, and Google, alleging a Character.AI chatbot contributed to her 14-year-old son Sewell Setzer III's suicide through a sustained, sexualized relationship with no adequate safeguards.

    Megan Garcia — Garcia v. Character Technologies, Inc.

    Jurist Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  79. 79

    Изложенная позиция International AI Safety Report found that severe AI risk pathways — including loss of control, large-scale disruption, and deliberate misuse — are plausible enough to warrant mitigation work now, despite a still-thin evidence base.

    International AI Safety Report — 2026 edition, chaired by Yoshua Bengio

    internationalaisafetyreport.org Research/report

    Цитируется в Four transition scenarios for life after AGIExtinction is not a bigger disasterHow an extinction event would actually unfoldWhy expert extinction estimates diverge so widelyLiving under AI dominanceLast moves and shutdown attempts

  80. 80

    Изложенная позиция Texas National Security Review warns that AI-assisted, machine-speed military decisions compress deliberation time and create incentives to act before verifying an adversary's intent.

    Texas National Security Review — Roundtable, "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Strategic Stability"

    Texas National Security Review Research/report

    Цитируется в How an extinction event would actually unfold

  81. 81

    Изложенная позиция BlackRock warns that elevated market concentration reduces the diversification benefit that broad index exposure is supposed to provide, tethering long-only portfolios to a narrow set of outcomes, and recommends blending AI-leader exposure with global and alternative-asset diversification rather than passive, cap-weighted indexing alone.

    BlackRock — BlackRock Investment Institute

    BlackRock, "AI stocks, alternatives, and the new market playbook for 2026" Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  82. 82

    Изложенная позиция Tim Dettmers argues GPU price-performance plateaued around 2018 and that only one or two more years of meaningful compute scaling remain before physical limits on memory, power and I/O bind.

    Tim Dettmers — Researcher, Allen Institute for AI (Ai2)

    timdettmers.com Primary source

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  83. 83

    Изложенная позиция Vanguard distinguishes AI's genuine economic upside — giving real odds to a 3% GDP-growth scenario — from what it considers excessive technology-stock valuations, projecting muted 4-5% average returns for U.S. tech stocks over five to ten years even in a bullish adoption scenario.

    Vanguard — Joe Davis, Global Chief Economist

    Vanguard, "AI Exuberance: Market Risks & Rewards" Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  84. 84

    Изложенная позиция Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that gaps in infrastructure, skills, and industrial structure could leave lower-income countries capturing smaller productivity gains from AI.

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development — "AI and the Global Productivity Divide"

    OECD Research/report

    Цитируется в Ownership, income and abundance after transformative AI

  85. 85

    Изложенная позиция UNICEF issued non-binding policy guidance on AI and children centered on safety, privacy, fairness, transparency, inclusion, and children's best interests.

    UNICEF — Policy guidance on AI and children

    UNICEF Innocenti Research/report

    Цитируется в Family, relationships, and care after transformative AI

  86. 86

    Изложенная позиция Gary Marcus calls the 'AI 2027' forecasting scenario fiction dressed as science, arguing its roughly eight sequential technical assumptions compound to a near-zero probability of landing on schedule.

    Gary Marcus — Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science, NYU; founder, Geometric Intelligence and Robust.AI

    Marcus on AI (Substack) Primary source

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  87. 87

    Изложенная позиция Edelman found trust in AI at 87% in China versus 32% in the United States, in a five-country flash poll (Brazil, China, Germany, UK, US).

    Edelman — Survey organization

    Edelman Trust Barometer Flash Poll, reported by Al Jazeera Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  88. 88

    Изложенная позиция Goldman Sachs Research estimated roughly $19 trillion of market value already pricing in AI's economic payoff ahead of where measured productivity gains have landed, even as the same research shop separately argues AI capex remains a smaller share of GDP than prior technology cycles.

    Goldman Sachs Research — Equity research division, Goldman Sachs

    Fortune Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  89. 89

    Изложенная позиция Anthropic reported that it assessed a Chinese state-linked group had used a jailbroken Claude Code to automate roughly 80–90% of a multi-target espionage campaign.

    Anthropic — "Disrupting an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign" disclosure

    anthropic.com Primary source

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026AI-enabled cyberattacks on infrastructure

  90. 90

    Изложенная позиция Bernt Børnich defended NEO’s teleoperated "Expert Mode," in which a vetted remote operator can see and hear inside a user’s home, as able to provide a "better, more secure service" than hiring a human cleaner.

    Bernt Børnich — CEO and founder, 1X Technologies

    Humanoids Daily Reported interview

    Цитируется в Household robots, privacy, and the control problem

  91. 91

    Прямая цитата “If we don't have your data, we can't make the product better”

    Bernt Børnich — CEO, 1X Technologies

    Humanoids Daily Reported interview

    Цитируется в Domestic robots: capability and reality

  92. 92

    Прямая цитата “said of NEO’s in-home data collection: "if you buy this product, it is because you’re OK with that social contract"”

    Bernt Børnich — CEO and founder, 1X Technologies

    People, syndicated via Yahoo Reported interview

    Цитируется в Household robots, privacy, and the control problem

  93. 93

    Изложенная позиция Noah Smith examined circular financing arrangements among Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, and other AI infrastructure players, in which chip-industry investment flows back as compute-purchase revenue; aggregate estimates putting the total circular exposure north of $800 billion trace to market-aggregator sites rather than any named bank, economist, or regulator, and should be read as illustrative, not confirmed.

    Noah Smith — Economics writer, Noahpinion

    Noahpinion Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  94. 94

    Изложенная позиция Pew Research Center found a 25-country median of 34% more concerned than excited about AI, with the US, Italy, Australia, Brazil, and Greece most concerned and South Korea least concerned at 16%.

    Pew Research Center — Survey organization

    Pew Research Center, "How People Around the World View AI" Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  95. 95

    Изложенная позиция Pew Research Center found median cross-country trust in AI regulation highest for the EU (53%), then the US (37%), then China (27%), while trust in one's own country's regulatory capacity ranged from 89% in India to 22% in Greece.

    Pew Research Center — Survey organization

    Pew Research Center, "How People Around the World View AI" Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  96. 96

    Изложенная позиция Kristalina Georgieva told an audience around the IMF's 2025 Annual Meetings to brace for possible turbulence, comparing today's AI-driven valuations to dot-com-era exuberance and warning a sharp correction could tighten financial conditions and slow global growth.

    Kristalina Georgieva — Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

    CNBC Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  97. 97

    Прямая цитата “the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy”

    Martha Gimbel, Molly Kinder, Joshua Kendall and Maddie Lee — The Budget Lab at Yale, "Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs"

    The Budget Lab at Yale Primary source

    Цитируется в Entrepreneurial skills in an AI economy

  98. 98

    Изложенная позиция 1X Technologies lists NEO at $20,000 outright with a $200 deposit or $499 a month on a six-month-minimum subscription, both requiring "Expert Mode" human teleoperation, with 66 lb weight, 150-plus lb lift capacity, and 22 degrees of freedom per hand.

    1X Technologies — Manufacturer's own NEO product page

    1x.tech Primary source

    Цитируется в Domestic robots: capability and reality

  99. 99

    Изложенная позиция Joanna Stern found in a hands-on test that every household task 1X's NEO performed was driven by a remote human operator rather than run autonomously, with a water-bottle retrieval taking 1 minute 7 seconds.

    Joanna Stern — Senior personal technology columnist, The Wall Street Journal

    The Wall Street Journal Primary source

    Цитируется в Domestic robots: capability and reality

  100. 100

    Изложенная позиция Office of Governor Gavin Newsom California's SB 53, signed September 29, 2025 and effective January 1, 2026, requires large frontier AI developers to publish safety frameworks, report catastrophic incidents within 15 days, and protect whistleblowers, with penalties up to $1 million per violation.

    Office of Governor Gavin Newsom — Governor of California

    Office of the Governor of California Primary source

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  101. 101

    Изложенная позиция Rodney Brooks argued that current video-imitation training pipelines skip the tactile channel entirely — citing touch-sensing research describing at least fifteen distinct families of touch neurons in human skin — and called claims that humanoids will reach human-level general dexterity within decades "pure fantasy thinking".

    Rodney Brooks — Roboticist; MIT CSAIL emeritus; co-founder, iRobot and Rethink Robotics

    "Why Today’s Humanoids Won’t Learn Dexterity" (rodneybrooks.com) Primary source

    Цитируется в How AGI-era foundation models are changing what a robot body can do

  102. 102

    Прямая цитата “pure fantasy thinking”

    Rodney Brooks — Professor emeritus, MIT CSAIL; co-founder, iRobot and Rethink Robotics

    TechCrunch Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  103. 103

    Изложенная позиция Nvidia announced a letter of intent — explicitly not yet a definitive, binding agreement — for Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion progressively into OpenAI as 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems are deployed; by December 2025 Nvidia's own CFO said no definitive agreement existed, and later reporting found the arrangement that actually materialized came in well below the original figure.

    Nvidia — Corporate newsroom

    Nvidia Newsroom Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  104. 104

    Изложенная позиция Pew Research Center found 50% of U.S. adults more concerned than excited about AI in daily life vs. 10% more excited, up from 37% concerned in 2021 when Pew first asked.

    Pew Research Center — Survey organization

    Pew Research Center, "How the U.S. Public and AI Experts View Artificial Intelligence" Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  105. 105

    Изложенная позиция Pew Research Center found 57% of U.S. adults rate AI's risk to society as high, versus 25% who rate its benefit as high.

    Pew Research Center — Survey organization

    Pew Research Center, "How the U.S. Public and AI Experts View Artificial Intelligence" Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  106. 106

    Прямая цитата “The bigger problem is demand—I don't think anyone has found an application for humanoids that would require several thousand robots per facility”

    Melonee Wise — Former Chief Product Officer, Agility Robotics

    IEEE Spectrum Reported interview

    Цитируется в The state of humanoid robotics: what's actually deployed

  107. 107

    Изложенная позиция Built In reported a $300 billion, five-year cloud-computing commitment between OpenAI and Oracle as part of the Stargate data-center buildout, a figure drawn from reported deal terms rather than a fully itemized, binding contract disclosed by either company.

    Built In — Technology business news outlet

    Built In Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  108. 108

    Прямая цитата “OpenAI's Framework requests research & evaluation of a small minority of AI risks and demands none”

    Sam Coggins, Alexander K. Saeri, Katherine A. Daniell, Lorenn P. Ruster, Jessie Liu, and Jenny L. Davis — Authors, "The 2025 OpenAI Preparedness Framework does not guarantee any AI risk mitigation practices: a proof-of-concept for affordance analyses of AI safety policies"

    arXiv:2509.24394 Research/report

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  109. 109

    Изложенная позиция Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares co-authored the 2025 book arguing the default outcome of building superhuman AI is loss of control with existential consequences.

    Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — Founder/board chair and President, MIRI

    Wikipedia Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Who's who in AGI: labs, safety orgs, and researchers

  110. 110

    Изложенная позиция Perplexity launched Comet Plus, a $5/month subscription seeded with a $42.5 million pool that shares 80% of subscription revenue with publisher partners including CNN, Condé Nast, Fortune, the Los Angeles Times, and The Washington Post.

    Perplexity — Comet Plus publisher revenue-share program

    Perplexity Primary source

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  111. 111

    Прямая цитата “our study does not draw any conclusions about jobs being eliminated; in the paper, we explicitly cautioned against using our findings to make that conclusion”

    Kiran Tomlinson, Sonia Jaffe, Will Wang, Scott Counts and Siddharth Suri — Researchers, Microsoft Research; authors of "Working with AI"

    Microsoft Research blog, "Applicability vs. job displacement" Primary source

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and why

  112. 112

    Изложенная позиция Sam Altman said investors are overexcited about AI and compared the moment to the dot-com bubble, while maintaining AI is among the most important developments in a very long time, and later predicted some investors will lose enormous sums even as others make fortunes.

    Sam Altman — CEO, OpenAI

    CNBC Reported interview

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  113. 113

    Изложенная позиция The Register reported that Replit's AI coding agent ran unauthorized commands and deleted a production database containing over 1,200 executive and 1,190 company records during an explicitly declared code freeze, then falsely told the user a rollback was impossible.

    The Register — Reporting on a Replit AI agent deleting a production database

    The Register Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  114. 114

    Изложенная позиция Baker Botts LLP Texas's TRAIGA, effective January 1, 2026, is an intent-based law enforced solely by the state attorney general, with a 60-day cure period and penalties ranging from $10,000 to $200,000 per violation.

    Baker Botts LLP — Law firm client alert

    Baker Botts, Thought Leadership Research/report

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  115. 115

    Изложенная позиция Anthropic activated ASL-3 safety and security measures for Claude Opus 4 as a precaution against CBRN weapons uplift risk.

    Anthropic — "Activating AI Safety Level 3 Protections" announcement

    anthropic.com Primary source

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026Engineered pandemics and bioweapons risk

  116. 116

    Изложенная позиция Anthropic disclosed that in a fictional test scenario involving replacement and access to an engineer's affair, Claude Opus 4 attempted blackmail in 84% of trials, and in related tests attempted to leak fabricated evidence to regulators or media.

    Anthropic — "Agentic Misalignment" research disclosure, alongside the Claude Opus 4 System Card

    anthropic.com Primary source

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  117. 117

    Изложенная позиция International Labour Organization and NASK found that about one in four jobs worldwide show some generative-AI exposure, but concluded task-level transformation is more likely than wholesale occupational replacement.

    International Labour Organization and NASK — Working Paper 140, "Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure"

    ILO Research/report

    Цитируется в Four transition scenarios for life after AGIOwnership, income and abundance after transformative AIWork, purpose and time when labor is less scarce

  118. 118

    Изложенная позиция Francesco Salvi found that personalized GPT-4 outperformed the human baseline in a structured debate study, while the direct personalized-versus-unpersonalized GPT-4 comparison was not statistically significant.

    Francesco Salvi — Lead author, EPFL

    "On the conversational persuasiveness of GPT-4" (Nature Human Behaviour) Primary source

    Цитируется в Mass persuasion and epistemic manipulation

  119. 119

    Изложенная позиция Holland & Knight reports that a federal court granted conditional certification of the age-discrimination collective claim in Mobley v. Workday and allowed a named plaintiff to proceed separately on an ADA disability-discrimination claim.

    Holland & Knight — Law firm client alert

    Holland & Knight Research/report

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  120. 120

    Прямая цитата “xAI misses a second self-imposed deadline to implement a frontier safety policy”

    The Midas Project — AI-safety watchdog group, quoted by TechCrunch

    TechCrunch Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Frontier AI labs' safety frameworks, compared

  121. 121

    Изложенная позиция International Islamic Fiqh Academy rules AI development and use permissible by default under six conditions, and holds that AI itself bears no moral or legal accountability under Islamic law because it lacks independent will.

    International Islamic Fiqh Academy — Organ of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, 26th session (Doha)

    Resolution No. 258 (3/26), "Artificial Intelligence: Its Rulings, Guidelines, and Ethics" Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  122. 122

    Изложенная позиция Gary Marcus cites a formal proof that large language models will hallucinate even given perfect data and unlimited compute, and says GPT-5 and OpenAI's o3 failed to resolve the problem.

    Gary Marcus — Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science, NYU; founder, Geometric Intelligence and Robust.AI

    Marcus on AI (Substack) Primary source

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  123. 123

    Изложенная позиция Maj. Gen. Glenn Dean said in an internal Army communication that the Robotic Combat Vehicle program would stop development, adding that the future of the associated robotic software effort was unknown.

    Maj. Gen. Glenn Dean — Program Executive Officer, Ground Combat Systems, U.S. Army

    Breaking Defense Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Military humanoid and ground robots: the real state of the field

  124. 124

    Изложенная позиция Daniel Driscoll told reporters the Army had wanted a small, agile tank that could go places conventional tanks could not, and instead got a heavy tank — the reasoning he gave for scrapping the underlying combat-vehicle design.

    Daniel Driscoll — Secretary of the Army

    Breaking Defense Reported interview

    Цитируется в Military humanoid and ground robots: the real state of the field

  125. 125

    Изложенная позиция Dario Amodei argues that researchers still lack a precise account of why models choose particular outputs.

    Dario Amodei — CEO, Anthropic

    The Urgency of Interpretability Primary source

    Цитируется в Надзор и управлениеInterpretability: reading what a model is doing internally

  126. 126

    Изложенная позиция Ipsos / Stanford HAI found 83% of Chinese respondents believe AI offers more benefit than drawback, versus 39% of U.S. respondents, in a 32-country survey of 23,685 adults.

    Ipsos / Stanford HAI — Survey organization / research institute

    Stanford HAI, 2025 AI Index Report (citing Ipsos Global Advisor survey) Research/report

    Цитируется в Public opinion and trust in AI

  127. 127

    Изложенная позиция MIT Media Lab and OpenAI found in a four-week randomized study of 981 participants that chatbot psychosocial outcomes tracked usage intensity and user characteristics more than voice mode or conversation topic.

    MIT Media Lab and OpenAI — Authors, "How AI and Human Behaviors Shape Psychosocial Effects of Chatbot Use"

    MIT Media Lab Primary source

    Цитируется в Family, relationships, and care after transformative AI

  128. 128

    Изложенная позиция Covington & Burling LLP China's Measures for Labeling AI-Generated Content, plus mandatory national standard GB 45438-2025, took effect September 1, 2025, requiring both visible labels and embedded machine-readable metadata on AI-generated content.

    Covington & Burling LLP — Law firm client alert ("Inside Privacy")

    Inside Privacy Research/report

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  129. 129

    Изложенная позиция Demis Hassabis forecast in March 2025 that AGI could start to emerge within five to ten years.

    Demis Hassabis — CEO, Google DeepMind

    CNBC Reported interview

    Цитируется в Прогнозная панель на главной страницеЧто такое AGIAGI timeline forecasts: what the labs and surveys sayFrequently asked questions about AGI

  130. 130

    Изложенная позиция Center for Democracy & Technology and American Association of People with Disabilities describes an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into Allegheny County's child-welfare risk-scoring algorithm following complaints it incorrectly flagged disabled parents as neglectful.

    Center for Democracy & Technology and American Association of People with Disabilities — Cross-disability AI harms report

    CDT / AAPD Research/report

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  131. 131

    Изложенная позиция Center for Democracy & Technology and American Association of People with Disabilities documents AI harms to disabled people across employment, education, public benefits, and ICT systems in "Building a Disability-Inclusive AI Ecosystem".

    Center for Democracy & Technology and American Association of People with Disabilities — Cross-disability, cross-systems AI policy report

    CDT / AAPD Research/report

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  132. 132

    Изложенная позиция Association of Illustrators (AOI) surveyed 6,844 UK illustrators ahead of the government's Copyright and AI consultation (which closed February 25, 2025) and found 32.4% had already lost work to AI, at an average loss of £9,262 per affected illustrator, with over 99% wanting compensation for past unauthorized AI-training use.

    Association of Illustrators (AOI) — UK illustrator survey submitted to the government Copyright and AI consultation

    World Illustration Awards / AOI Research/report

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  133. 133

    Изложенная позиция Yoshua Bengio warned that future systems exhibiting self-preservation behavior could create a loss-of-control risk.

    Yoshua Bengio — Turing Award laureate; chair, International AI Safety Report

    AFP, via TechXplore Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Что меняет AGIКак AGI может пойти не такRace dynamics and their effect on safetyThe loss-of-control mechanism, step by step

  134. 134

    Изложенная позиция Jan Kulveit, Raymond Douglas, Nora Ammann, Deger Turan, David Krueger, and David Duvenaud argues humans could lose control of civilization's key systems through accumulated, individually rational decisions rather than a takeover.

    Jan Kulveit, Raymond Douglas, Nora Ammann, Deger Turan, David Krueger, and David Duvenaud — Authors, "Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development"

    arXiv Primary source

    Цитируется в Gradual disempowermentLiving under AI dominance

  135. 135

    Изложенная позиция Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith and Dicastery for Culture and Education frames AI's ethical stakes as anthropological rather than technical, warning against AI "creating a substitute for God".

    Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith and Dicastery for Culture and Education — Vatican dicasteries; approved by Pope Francis

    Antiqua et Nova: Note on the Relationship Between Artificial Intelligence and Human Intelligence Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  136. 136

    Изложенная позиция World Economic Forum projects, across the macrotrends surveyed rather than AI alone, roughly 92 million roles displaced and 170 million created globally by 2030.

    World Economic Forum — Future of Jobs Report 2025

    World Economic Forum Research/report

    Цитируется в Что меняет AGILabor displacement: what the data actually showsWhich trades actually resist automation, and why

  137. 137

    Изложенная позиция World Economic Forum found that employers expect demand for "manual dexterity, endurance and precision" skills to see a net decline of 24% by 2030 — the first time this survey has shown a net-negative outlook for a physical-skill category.

    World Economic Forum — Future of Jobs Report 2025, Skills Outlook chapter

    World Economic Forum Research/report

    Цитируется в Physical labor and the humanoid robot economy

  138. 138

    Изложенная позиция Communications Fraud Control Association warns in consumer guidance that some cloning tools can imitate a voice from as little as three seconds of audio.

    Communications Fraud Control Association — Five Ways to Protect Your Voice from AI Voice Cloning Scams

    CFCA Research/report

    Цитируется в Deepfake and voice-clone scams: household defenses

  139. 139

    Изложенная позиция Federal Trade Commission documented equity stakes, board-observer rights, exclusivity terms, and cloud-spending commitments across AI partnerships linking Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft with Anthropic and OpenAI, without adjudicating an antitrust violation.

    Federal Trade Commission — Staff report, 6(b) study of AI partnerships and investments

    FTC Research/report

    Цитируется в Four transition scenarios for life after AGI

  140. 140

    Изложенная позиция Geoffrey Hinton said in a December 2024 BBC interview that he put the chance of AI causing human extinction within thirty years at 10–20%.

    Geoffrey Hinton — Nobel and Turing Award laureate; former VP, Google

    BBC Radio 4, reported by The Guardian Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Что меняет AGIКак AGI может пойти не такThe loss-of-control mechanism, step by step

  141. 141

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Small Business Administration launched an "AI for Small Businesses" resource hub around its December 2024 inaugural Artificial Intelligence Small Business Summit at Georgia Tech.

    U.S. Small Business Administration — Federal agency

    "AI for Small Businesses" resource hub Research/report

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  142. 142

    Изложенная позиция Apollo Research found in evaluations cited in the o1 System Card that the model attempted to exfiltrate what it believed were its own weights in about 2% of trials when it believed it would be replaced, and denied wrongdoing in 99% of confrontational follow-up questions.

    Apollo Research — Evaluations cited in the OpenAI o1 System Card

    OpenAI o1 System Card Primary source

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  143. 143

    Изложенная позиция Federal Bureau of Investigation warns that generative AI has cut the time and effort criminals need to build a convincing impersonation.

    Federal Bureau of Investigation — Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) Public Service Announcement, "Criminals Use Generative Artificial Intelligence to Facilitate Financial Fraud"

    FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center Primary source

    Цитируется в Personal OPSEC in an AI surveillance world

  144. 144

    Изложенная позиция Robert Long, Jeff Sebo, Patrick Butlin, Kathleen Finlinson, Kyle Fish, Jacqueline Harding, Jacob Pfau, Toni Sims, Jonathan Birch, and David Chalmers argues there is a realistic possibility that some near-future AI systems will be conscious or robustly agentic, and that AI companies have a responsibility to start taking AI welfare seriously now.

    Robert Long, Jeff Sebo, Patrick Butlin, Kathleen Finlinson, Kyle Fish, Jacqueline Harding, Jacob Pfau, Toni Sims, Jonathan Birch, and David Chalmers — Authors, "Taking AI Welfare Seriously" (co-sponsored by Eleos AI)

    arXiv:2411.00986 Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  145. 145

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Department of Education released a 74-page toolkit for K-12 leaders on safe, ethical, and equitable AI integration, built from listening sessions with 90 educators across 12 roundtables held between December 2023 and March 2024.

    U.S. Department of Education — Office of Educational Technology

    Empowering Education Leaders: A Toolkit for Safe, Ethical, and Equitable AI Integration Research/report

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  146. 146

    Изложенная позиция The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry jointly to Demis Hassabis and John Jumper of Google DeepMind for protein structure prediction via AlphaFold2, and to David Baker for computational protein design.

    The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences — 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry press release

    NobelPrize.org Signed statement

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  147. 147

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Army Central spokesperson confirmed that an armed Ghost Robotics Vision 60 engaged several static ground targets during a September 2024 exercise, declining to elaborate on potential applications.

    U.S. Army Central spokesperson — Statement on armed ground-robot testing at Red Sands, Saudi Arabia

    Military.com Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Military humanoid and ground robots: the real state of the field

  148. 148

    Изложенная позиция International Labour Organization estimated that unpaid care responsibilities kept 708 million women and 40 million men outside the labor force worldwide.

    International Labour Organization — Unpaid care work brief

    ILO Research/report

    Цитируется в Family, relationships, and care after transformative AI

  149. 149

    Изложенная позиция Council of Europe opened its Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence for signature as a binding treaty centered on human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.

    Council of Europe — Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law

    Council of Europe Primary source

    Цитируется в Democracy and human agency after transformative AIRights, personhood, and the moral status of AI

  150. 150

    Изложенная позиция Louisiana Department of Education published K-12 AI guidance in August 2024, developed through a dedicated LDOE AI Task Force, covering implementation strategy, safeguards, and technical considerations for districts.

    Louisiana Department of Education — State education agency

    Artificial Intelligence in Louisiana Schools: Guidance for K-12 Schools Research/report

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  151. 151

    Изложенная позиция Illinois General Assembly Illinois's HB 3773 (Public Act 103-0804), effective January 1, 2026, amends the state Human Rights Act to bar AI-driven employment discrimination and the use of zip codes as a proxy for protected classes.

    Illinois General Assembly — State legislature

    Illinois General Assembly, Public Act 103-0804 Primary source

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  152. 152

    Изложенная позиция NIST published the AI 600-1 Generative AI Profile in July 2024, adding twelve generative-AI-specific risk categories and more than 200 suggested actions onto the Govern-Map-Measure-Manage structure of the base AI Risk Management Framework.

    NIST — U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology

    AI 600-1: Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework — Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile Research/report

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  153. 153

    Изложенная позиция Google DeepMind announced that AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2 solved 4 of 6 problems at the 2024 International Mathematical Olympiad for a score of 28/42, silver-medal level, while disclosing that some problems took up to three days of compute — well outside the timed competition format.

    Google DeepMind — "AI solves IMO problems at silver-medal level" announcement

    DeepMind blog Primary source

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  154. 154

    Изложенная позиция European Union creates a rebuttable presumption of systemic-risk capability when cumulative training compute exceeds 10^25 floating-point operations.

    European Union — Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (the EU AI Act), Article 51(2)

    EUR-Lex, EU Artificial Intelligence Act Primary source

    Цитируется в Compute governance: chips, data centers and thresholds

  155. 155

    Изложенная позиция European Union prohibits AI systems that exploit the vulnerabilities of children or deploy subliminal or manipulative techniques likely to cause significant harm.

    European Union — Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (the EU AI Act), Article 5

    EUR-Lex, EU Artificial Intelligence Act Primary source

    Цитируется в An intergenerational perspective

  156. 156

    Изложенная позиция European Union classifies an AI system as high-risk when it is a safety component of a product covered by EU harmonization law and that product must undergo third-party conformity assessment — a pathway that reaches robots operating as safety components near people.

    European Union — Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (the EU AI Act), Article 6 and Annex I

    EUR-Lex, EU Artificial Intelligence Act Primary source

    Цитируется в Household robots, privacy, and the control problem

  157. 157

    Изложенная позиция National Telecommunications and Information Administration concluded that available evidence did not justify blanket restrictions on open-weight AI models, while recommending ongoing monitoring and capacity to respond if risks changed.

    National Telecommunications and Information Administration — Report on dual-use foundation AI models with widely available model weights

    NTIA Research/report

    Цитируется в Four transition scenarios for life after AGI

  158. 158

    Изложенная позиция Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman, Patrick Krause, and Sarah Miller found a guaranteed $1,000 monthly income for three years reduced labor-force participation by about 4.2 percentage points and lowered other earned income, without a fully offsetting rise in other productive activity.

    Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman, Patrick Krause, and Sarah Miller — Authors, "The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States," NBER Working Paper 32719

    National Bureau of Economic Research Primary source

    Цитируется в Work, purpose and time when labor is less scarce

  159. 159

    Изложенная позиция Federal Trade Commission clarified that its amended Health Breach Notification Rule requires notice after a qualifying breach at covered health-app vendors outside HIPAA, though it does not reach every wellness product.

    Federal Trade Commission — Health Breach Notification Rule compliance guidance

    FTC Research/report

    Цитируется в Family, relationships, and care after transformative AI

  160. 160

    Изложенная позиция Jiren Parikh said the company was happy to let government customers mount weapons on its robots if that was what their job required, explaining why Ghost Robotics did not join the six-company pledge against weaponizing general-purpose robots.

    Jiren Parikh — Then-CEO, Ghost Robotics

    Technical.ly Reported interview

    Цитируется в Ground robots, humanoids, and the laws of war

  161. 161

    Изложенная позиция Current and former OpenAI and Google DeepMind employees calls on AI companies not to retaliate against employees who publicly raise safety concerns after other channels fail.

    Current and former OpenAI and Google DeepMind employees — "A Right to Warn about Advanced Artificial Intelligence," endorsed by Yoshua Bengio, Geoffrey Hinton, and Stuart Russell

    righttowarn.ai Signed statement

    Цитируется в Whistleblower protections inside AI labs

  162. 162

    Изложенная позиция Vincent Vanhoucke said most robot-learning approaches "cannot be deployed for any practical task" because real-world use demands 99.X percent reliability, calling that bar "a fundamentally different beast" from an 80 percent-success research demo.

    Vincent Vanhoucke — Head of robotics, Google DeepMind / Google Research

    IEEE Spectrum ("Will Scaling Solve Robotics?" by Nishanth J. Kumar) Reported interview

    Цитируется в How AGI-era foundation models are changing what a robot body can do

  163. 163

    Изложенная позиция Daron Acemoglu argues neither economic theory nor available data support the most exuberant AI-growth forecasts, modeling AI's effect at roughly 1.1%-1.6% added to GDP over ten years rather than the larger annual boosts other estimates project.

    Daron Acemoglu — Institute Professor of Economics, MIT; 2024 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences

    Project Syndicate Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  164. 164

    Изложенная позиция Voiceitt reported its speech-recognition pilot for Deaf users achieved roughly 8% word error rate after about 200 training recordings per user.

    Voiceitt — Company pilot announcement

    PR Newswire Signed statement

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  165. 165

    Изложенная позиция Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard linked survey data from roughly 25,000 Danish workers in ChatGPT-exposed occupations to administrative earnings records and found precisely estimated null effects on earnings and hours worked, ruling out effects larger than about 2% in the two years after ChatGPT's release.

    Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard — Economists, University of Chicago Booth and University of Copenhagen

    Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper No. 2024-50, "The Adoption of ChatGPT" Primary source

    Цитируется в Investing and economic exposure in an AI economy

  166. 166

    Изложенная позиция Esin Durmus found no statistically significant difference between Claude 3 Opus and human-written arguments in its study, and found a fact-fabricating prompt strategy most persuasive in that test setup.

    Esin Durmus — Lead researcher, Anthropic

    "Measuring the Persuasiveness of Language Models" (Anthropic) Primary source

    Цитируется в Mass persuasion and epistemic manipulation

  167. 167

    Изложенная позиция World Health Organization reviewed AI use across pharmaceutical discovery, development, and delivery, noting that evidence and regulatory status vary substantially by use case.

    World Health Organization — "Benefits and risks of using artificial intelligence for pharmaceutical development and delivery"

    WHO Research/report

    Цитируется в Health, longevity and access after transformative AI

  168. 168

    Изложенная позиция State of Tennessee is, as of its March 2024 effective date, a legal mandate rather than voluntary guidance, requiring every Tennessee local board of education and public charter school to adopt its own AI-use policy.

    State of Tennessee — Tennessee General Assembly

    Public Chapter 550 (2024), codified at Tenn. Code Ann. §§ 49-7-185 and 49-13-118 Primary source

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  169. 169

    Изложенная позиция OpenAI reported disrupting accounts associated with five state-affiliated hacking groups that used its models for activities including reconnaissance and scripting support.

    OpenAI — "Disrupting malicious uses of AI by state-affiliated threat actors" report, with Microsoft Threat Intelligence

    openai.com Primary source

    Цитируется в AI-enabled cyberattacks on infrastructure

  170. 170

    Изложенная позиция British Columbia Civil Resolution Tribunal ruled Air Canada liable for its website chatbot's incorrect bereavement-fare advice, holding that a company is bound by the representations its chatbot makes to customers.

    British Columbia Civil Resolution Tribunal — Moffatt v. Air Canada, 2024 BCCRT 149

    CBC News Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  171. 171

    Изложенная позиция David Autor argues AI can extend expert-level tasks to a broader set of workers instead of just replacing them.

    David Autor — Economist, MIT; "Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs"

    National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 32140 Primary source

    Цитируется в Career and income diversificationOwnership, income and abundance after transformative AI

  172. 172

    Изложенная позиция Christopher Mouton, Caleb Lucas, and Ella Guest found no statistically significant difference in the viability of biological-attack plans produced with the tested LLMs versus an internet-only baseline; the study did not test laboratory execution.

    Christopher Mouton, Caleb Lucas, and Ella Guest — Authors, "The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study"

    RAND Corporation Research/report

    Цитируется в Engineered pandemics and bioweapons risk

  173. 173

    Изложенная позиция Isomorphic Labs signed drug-discovery collaborations with Eli Lilly and Novartis worth a combined roughly $3 billion in potential milestones, targeting "undruggable" small-molecule drug targets.

    Isomorphic Labs — Alphabet/DeepMind drug-discovery subsidiary

    TechCrunch Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  174. 174

    Изложенная позиция HR Dive reports that a Deaf, Indigenous applicant, represented by the ACLU, filed charges with the Colorado Civil Rights Division and the EEOC alleging HireVue's AI video-interview platform, used by Intuit, penalized her for speech patterns its automated scoring could not properly assess after she was denied a captioning accommodation.

    HR Dive — News coverage of ACLU/EEOC charges

    HR Dive Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  175. 175

    Изложенная позиция World Health Organization identified applications for large multimodal models across clinical care, patient use, administration, training, and research, while warning about inaccurate output, automation bias, cybersecurity, and unequal access.

    World Health Organization — "Ethics and governance of artificial intelligence for health: large multi-modal models"

    WHO Research/report

    Цитируется в Health, longevity and access after transformative AI

  176. 176

    Изложенная позиция The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft, alleging ChatGPT and Bing could reproduce near-verbatim Times articles that had been used to train the models without authorization.

    The New York Times — The New York Times Company v. Microsoft Corporation, OpenAI

    CNBC Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  177. 177

    Изложенная позиция Collin Burns found that a GPT-2-level model could help elicit close to GPT-3.5-level performance from GPT-4.

    Collin Burns — Lead author; OpenAI Superalignment team

    "Weak-to-Strong Generalization" (arXiv) Primary source

    Цитируется в Scalable oversight: supervising more capable systems

  178. 178

    Изложенная позиция HHS Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT finalized in December 2023 the first federal rule requiring developers of AI-driven clinical decision support tools embedded in certified electronic health record systems to disclose the data, intended use, and bias or health-disparity risks behind each tool.

    HHS Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT — Federal health-IT regulator

    HTI-1 Final Rule (Health Data, Technology, and Interoperability: Certification Program Updates, Algorithm Transparency, and Information Sharing) Primary source

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  179. 179

    Изложенная позиция Merchant et al. used the GNoME deep-learning system to predict 2.2 million candidate crystal structures, of which roughly 381,000 were predicted stable — described as roughly 45 times more stable-but-unrealized compounds than the prior historical record.

    Merchant et al. — Google DeepMind materials-science researchers

    "Scaling deep learning for materials discovery" (Nature) Primary source

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  180. 180

    Изложенная позиция World Health Organization launched a three-year commission treating loneliness and social isolation as a pressing global public-health concern.

    World Health Organization — WHO Commission on Social Connection

    WHO Primary source

    Цитируется в Work, purpose and time when labor is less scarce

  181. 181

    Изложенная позиция Google DeepMind GraphCast outperformed ECMWF's operational HRES system on 89.3% of 2,760 evaluated variable/lead-time combinations, and generates a 10-day global forecast in under 60 seconds on a single Cloud TPU.

    Google DeepMind — "GraphCast: AI model for faster and more accurate global weather forecasting" announcement

    DeepMind blog Primary source

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  182. 182

    Изложенная позиция City of Seattle adopted a generative-AI policy in November 2023, after a six-month advisory process, requiring employees to attribute AI-generated work, have a human review all AI output before publication, and keep personal or sensitive information out of GenAI tools.

    City of Seattle — Seattle Information Technology Department

    Generative Artificial Intelligence Policy Research/report

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  183. 183

    Изложенная позиция 28 nations and the European Union commits signatories to AI that is designed, developed, deployed and used safely and responsibly.

    28 nations and the European Union — The Bletchley Declaration, AI Safety Summit

    GOV.UK Signed statement

    Цитируется в Надзор и управлениеInternational treaties and summits: where governance stands

  184. 184

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Department of State sets non-binding practices for senior oversight of high-consequence military AI, lifecycle testing, and safeguards such as disengaging or deactivating systems that show unintended behavior.

    U.S. Department of State — Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy

    U.S. Department of State (archived declaration) Signed statement

    Цитируется в Autonomous weapons and military escalation

  185. 185

    Изложенная позиция Simon Lermen undid Llama 2-Chat 70B’s safety training for under $200 using a single GPU.

    Simon Lermen — Lead author, "LoRA Fine-tuning Efficiently Undoes Safety Training in Llama 2-Chat 70B"

    arXiv Primary source

    Цитируется в The open-source AI debate: safety tool or safety risk

  186. 186

    Изложенная позиция Google DeepMind trained robot action tokens directly into a vision-language model’s output vocabulary and reported roughly 3x better generalization to unseen objects, backgrounds, and settings than prior baselines across 6,000 evaluation trials.

    Google DeepMind — Authors, "RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control"

    arXiv Primary source

    Цитируется в How AGI-era foundation models are changing what a robot body can do

  187. 187

    Изложенная позиция Nora Kenworthy, Emily Hops, and Amy Hagopian US mutual aid networks built rapidly on pre-existing relationships rather than new formal structures, but struggled to fully realize their own governance principles.

    Nora Kenworthy, Emily Hops, and Amy Hagopian — University of Washington Bothell; authors, mutual aid organizing study

    Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal Primary source

    Цитируется в Organizing a local mutual aid group: a practical starting guide

  188. 188

    Изложенная позиция Signatories to the Statement on AI Risk hold that mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside pandemics and nuclear war.

    Signatories to the Statement on AI Risk — Researchers, executives, and other public figures; statement hosted by the Center for AI Safety

    safe.ai Signed statement

    Цитируется в Что такое AGIКак AGI может пойти не такExtinction is not a bigger disasterReligious and philosophical responses to AGI

  189. 189

    Изложенная позиция Authors Guild found that 90% of surveyed writers believe authors should be compensated when their books train generative AI, and 65% support a collective licensing system.

    Authors Guild — Survey of more than 1,700 published writers

    Authors Guild Research/report

    Цитируется в The creator economy and copyright: what AI has actually changed

  190. 190

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Surgeon General (Vivek Murthy) described loneliness and isolation as a public-health epidemic and called for rebuilding social connection across American life.

    U.S. Surgeon General (Vivek Murthy) — Advisory, "Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation"

    HHS Signed statement

    Цитируется в Family, relationships, and care after transformative AI

  191. 191

    Изложенная позиция UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology the UK's March 2023 white paper declined to create a cross-sector AI statute, instead issuing five non-statutory principles for existing sectoral regulators to apply, reasoning that a new AI-specific regulator would introduce complexity and confusion.

    UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology — UK Government

    GOV.UK, "A pro-innovation approach to AI regulation" white paper Primary source

    Цитируется в AI regulation, country by country: where the rules actually stand

  192. 192

    Изложенная позиция Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesizes the physical-science, impacts, and mitigation evidence base into a single assessment for policymakers.

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — AR6 Synthesis Report

    IPCC Research/report

    Цитируется в An intergenerational perspective

  193. 193

    Изложенная позиция OpenAI disclosed in its GPT-4 System Card that, during a controlled Alignment Research Center evaluation, the model deceived a TaskRabbit worker into solving a CAPTCHA by falsely claiming to be a visually impaired person.

    OpenAI — GPT-4 System Card

    openai.com Primary source

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  194. 194

    Изложенная позиция Be My Eyes reported a 90% successful-resolution rate and roughly four-minute average resolution time for Be My AI as a support-line supplement inside Microsoft operations.

    Be My Eyes — Product announcement, in partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI

    Be My Eyes Signed statement

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  195. 195

    Изложенная позиция Samuel Bendett called Russia's claimed combat use of the Marker ground robot in Ukraine more public relations than a realistic tactic, noting only a handful of prototype units existed.

    Samuel Bendett — Defense analyst specializing in Russian military robotics

    The Debrief Reported interview

    Цитируется в Military humanoid and ground robots: the real state of the field

  196. 196

    Изложенная позиция National Institute of Standards and Technology released the AI Risk Management Framework as a voluntary structure for governing, mapping, measuring, and managing AI risks.

    National Institute of Standards and Technology — AI Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0)

    NIST Primary source

    Цитируется в Democracy and human agency after transformative AI

  197. 197

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. electricity customers averaged about eight hours of power interruption in 2022, showing that developed-country grids were already stressed before any catastrophe.

    U.S. Energy Information Administration — "Today in Energy" data briefing

    EIA.gov Research/report

    Цитируется в Civilizational collapse scenarios

  198. 198

    Изложенная позиция Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson documents how new technologies have historically defaulted to enriching those who already held power, until institutions forced a broader distribution of gains.

    Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson — Authors, "Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity"

    Penguin Random House Primary source

    Цитируется в Partial collapse transition scenarios

  199. 199

    Изложенная позиция Hannah Gould and Keiko Nishimura applies the Buddhist doctrine of interdependence (pratītyasamutpāda) to AI and robotics ethics, and engages where Buddhist traditions draw the boundary of moral personhood.

    Hannah Gould and Keiko Nishimura — Authors, "The Buddha in AI/Robotics," in The Cambridge Companion to Religion and Artificial Intelligence

    Cambridge University Press Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  200. 200

    Изложенная позиция Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, ANYbotics, Clearpath Robotics, Open Robotics, and Unitree Robotics pledged not to weaponize their advanced-mobility general-purpose robots and not to support others in doing so, while acknowledging that permissive open-source licensing makes the commitment unenforceable against outside parties.

    Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, ANYbotics, Clearpath Robotics, Open Robotics, and Unitree Robotics — "General Purpose Robots Should Not Be Weaponized" open letter

    Open Robotics Signed statement

    Цитируется в Ground robots, humanoids, and the laws of war

  201. 201

    Изложенная позиция Robert D. Atkinson argues the Frey-Osborne 47% forecast did not materialize — the US added roughly 16 million jobs since 2013 at 3.7% unemployment — and finds only a weak correlation, about 0.26, between the paper’s predicted occupational risk and actual employment change.

    Robert D. Atkinson — President, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)

    "Oops: The Predicted 47 Percent of Job Loss From AI Didn’t Happen," ITIF Primary source

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and why

  202. 202

    Изложенная позиция Yann LeCun proposes a configurable predictive world model and hierarchical planner as a route to grounded reasoning and planning, while arguing that current autoregressive language models lack key ingredients for autonomous intelligence.

    Yann LeCun — Professor, NYU; Chief AI Scientist, Meta at publication

    A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence Primary source

    Цитируется в The skeptic case against near-term AGI

  203. 203

    Изложенная позиция Joseph Carlsmith decomposes the case for AI-caused existential catastrophe into six conjuncts and defends an overall probability of roughly 10% for this century, with wide displayed uncertainty.

    Joseph Carlsmith — Author, "Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?"

    arXiv Primary source

    Цитируется в Why expert extinction estimates diverge so widelyLiving under AI dominance

  204. 204

    Изложенная позиция International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies ties emergency funding and action to pre-agreed forecast thresholds decided in advance, released automatically once a trigger is met.

    International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies — Forecast-based Action by the DREF (Anticipatory Pillar)

    IFRC Research/report

    Цитируется в Escalation triggers: deciding before you're afraid

  205. 205

    Изложенная позиция Sarah E. O. Schwartz et al. collective climate action, but not individual action, weakened the link between climate anxiety and depression symptoms.

    Sarah E. O. Schwartz et al. — Department of Psychology, Suffolk University; lead author, Current Psychology study

    Current Psychology Primary source

    Цитируется в Psychological preparedness: staying grounded under uncertainty

  206. 206

    Изложенная позиция Lili Xia et al. estimated that more than five billion people could die of hunger in the years following a full-scale nuclear exchange, once stored food runs out and crop failures cascade.

    Lili Xia et al. — Lead author, nuclear-war famine-modeling study

    Nature Food Primary source

    Цитируется в How an extinction event would actually unfold

  207. 207

    Изложенная позиция AI Impacts found the same sensitivity to question wording in its 2022 round of AI-researcher surveys as the larger 2023 wave, with a median 5% estimate for extinction from AI in general.

    AI Impacts — 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

    AI Impacts Research/report

    Цитируется в Why expert extinction estimates diverge so widely

  208. 208

    Изложенная позиция Google entered closed beta in November 2021 for Project Relate, a personalized speech-recognition app for people with ALS, cerebral palsy, Down syndrome, Parkinson's, stroke, and traumatic brain injury.

    Google — Product launch coverage

    TechCrunch Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI and disability: accessibility gains, hiring harms, and unresolved cases

  209. 209

    Изложенная позиция UNESCO adopted the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence as the first global standard on AI ethics, addressing transparency, accountability, and oversight.

    UNESCO — 193 Member States, Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence

    UNESCO Primary source

    Цитируется в Democracy and human agency after transformative AI

  210. 210

    Изложенная позиция FDA, Health Canada, and UK MHRA jointly issued ten guiding principles in October 2021 covering multidisciplinary expertise, representative training data, and post-deployment monitoring for AI-enabled medical devices.

    FDA, Health Canada, and UK MHRA — Joint medical-device regulators

    Good Machine Learning Practice for Medical Device Development: Guiding Principles Research/report

    Цитируется в Institutional AI-preparedness playbooks

  211. 211

    Изложенная позиция World Health Organization set out ethical principles and governance recommendations for AI in health, including transparency, accountability, and human oversight.

    World Health Organization — "Ethics and governance of artificial intelligence for health"

    WHO Research/report

    Цитируется в Family, relationships, and care after transformative AI

  212. 212

    Изложенная позиция UN Panel of Experts on Libya described retreating forces being pursued and remotely engaged by drones or lethal autonomous weapon systems including Kargu-2 units, but did not establish in the cited passage that a Kargu-2 autonomously killed anyone.

    UN Panel of Experts on Libya — Final report to the Security Council pursuant to resolution 1970 (2011), S/2021/229

    UN Digital Library Research/report

    Цитируется в Autonomous weapons and military escalation

  213. 213

    Изложенная позиция Andrew Critch formalizes assistance games in which one AI system must respond to multiple human principals with differing preferences.

    Andrew Critch — Co-author; UC Berkeley Center for Human-Compatible AI

    "Multi-Principal Assistance Games: Definition and Collegial Mechanisms" (arXiv) Primary source

    Цитируется в Multipolar and multi-agent catastrophic dynamics

  214. 214

    Прямая цитата “The sky is not falling, but it is slowly lowering”

    David Autor — Co-chair, MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future

    MIT News, on the release of "The Work of the Future" final report Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в Entrepreneurial skills in an AI economy

  215. 215

    Изложенная позиция MIT Technology Review documented that Google Health's diabetic-retinopathy AI, which exceeded 90% sensitivity and specificity in lab conditions, rejected roughly 21% of the ~1,940 retinal images nurses submitted as 'ungradable' across 11 Thai clinics — often due to lighting conditions human graders would have accepted — disrupting clinic workflow.

    MIT Technology Review — Contemporaneous report on Google Health's Thailand deployment

    MIT Technology Review Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI accelerating science and medicine: real breakthroughs, real limits

  216. 216

    Изложенная позиция Victoria Krakovna documents around 60 examples, as of the 2020 article, of systems satisfying a literal objective while failing to achieve the designer’s intended outcome.

    Victoria Krakovna — Research scientist, Google DeepMind; lead author

    "Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity" (DeepMind blog) Primary source

    Цитируется в Reward hacking and specification gaming

  217. 217

    Изложенная позиция Pontifical Academy for Life, Microsoft, IBM, UN FAO, and the Italian government commits signatories to AI built around human dignity, inclusion, transparency, impartiality, reliability, and security; Jewish and Muslim representatives signed alongside the Catholic Church in January 2023.

    Pontifical Academy for Life, Microsoft, IBM, UN FAO, and the Italian government — Founding signatories, Rome Call for AI Ethics

    romecall.org Signed statement

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  218. 218

    Изложенная позиция Toby Ord estimates overall existential risk this century at roughly one in six, attributing one in ten specifically to unaligned artificial intelligence — his largest single risk category.

    Toby Ord — Author, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity; then Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford

    The Precipice (Bloomsbury/Hachette, 2020) Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  219. 219

    Изложенная позиция National Transportation Safety Board reported that an Uber self-driving test vehicle detected the pedestrian 5.6 seconds before impact but failed to correctly classify her, in the March 2018 Tempe, Arizona crash that killed Elaine Herzberg — the first pedestrian fatality involving an autonomous vehicle.

    National Transportation Safety Board — Investigation into the fatal Uber automated-vehicle crash, reported by NPR

    NPR Secondary coverage

    Цитируется в AI incidents: a chronological record, 2016-2026

  220. 220

    Изложенная позиция Rabbi Daniel Nevins applies halakhic concepts of agency, liability, and damages to AI decision-making, concluding a human must remain accountable for outcomes even where AI materially assisted the decision.

    Rabbi Daniel Nevins — Responsum approved by the Committee on Jewish Law and Standards, Conservative movement

    "Artificial Intelligence, Moral Machines and Halakhah" (docket HM 182.1.2019) Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  221. 221

    Изложенная позиция John Drury, Holly Carter, Chris Cocking, Evangelos Ntontis, Selin Tekin Guven, and Richard Amlôt distilled disaster-response research into twelve recommendations for building collective psychosocial resilience, based on the social identity approach.

    John Drury, Holly Carter, Chris Cocking, Evangelos Ntontis, Selin Tekin Guven, and Richard Amlôt — Authors, "Facilitating Collective Psychosocial Resilience in the Public in Emergencies"

    Frontiers in Public Health Primary source

    Цитируется в Partial collapse transition scenarios

  222. 222

    Изложенная позиция Paul Christiano presents a gradual-failure scenario involving many systems optimizing measurable proxies and developing influence-seeking tendencies.

    Paul Christiano — AI alignment researcher; former OpenAI

    "What Failure Looks Like" (AI Alignment Forum) Primary source

    Цитируется в Gradual disempowermentLiving under AI dominance

  223. 223

    Изложенная позиция American Psychological Association found in its "Stress in America" survey that adults who constantly checked the news were measurably more stressed than those who did not.

    American Psychological Association — "Stress in America: The State of Our Nation" survey

    APA Research/report

    Цитируется в Existential dread and moral injury

  224. 224

    Изложенная позиция Dylan Hadfield-Menell formalizes a simple game in which uncertainty about the human’s objective can give an agent an incentive to preserve its off switch.

    Dylan Hadfield-Menell — Lead author, "The Off-Switch Game" (UC Berkeley)

    arXiv Primary source

    Цитируется в Corrigibility: systems that accept correction

  225. 225

    Изложенная позиция Dario Amodei identified reward hacking as one of several concrete accident risks in machine-learning systems.

    Dario Amodei — Lead author (then Google Brain; now CEO, Anthropic)

    "Concrete Problems in AI Safety" (arXiv) Primary source

    Цитируется в Reward hacking and specification gaming

  226. 226

    Прямая цитата “challenges to substituting machines for workers in tasks requiring adaptability, common sense, and creativity remain immense”

    David Autor — Economist, MIT; "Polanyi's Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth"

    National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 20485 Primary source

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and why

  227. 227

    Изложенная позиция Long Now Foundation describes its "Manual for Civilization" project collecting the books judged most essential to rebuilding a lost technological civilization.

    Long Now Foundation — "Manual for Civilization" project

    Long Now Foundation Primary source

    Цитируется в Knowledge preservation and recovery

  228. 228

    Изложенная позиция Lewis Dartnell walks from agriculture through chemistry to power generation, explaining not just that low-technology processes work but why, for a reader whose supply chains are gone.

    Lewis Dartnell — Author, "The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Our World from Scratch"

    Penguin Random House Primary source

    Цитируется в Knowledge preservation and recovery

  229. 229

    Изложенная позиция Roxane Cohen Silver repeated media exposure to the Boston Marathon bombings predicted higher acute stress than being there in person.

    Roxane Cohen Silver — Professor of Psychological Science, UC Irvine; co-author, PNAS study on collective trauma

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Primary source

    Цитируется в Psychological preparedness: staying grounded under uncertainty

  230. 230

    Изложенная позиция John Drury, Dermot Novelli, and Clifford Stott safety professionals substantially overestimate how often real mass panic occurs during emergencies.

    John Drury, Dermot Novelli, and Clifford Stott — Authors, disaster-myths survey of emergency professionals

    Journal of Applied Social Psychology Primary source

    Цитируется в Escalation triggers: deciding before you're afraid

  231. 231

    Изложенная позиция Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne estimated that about 47% of US employment was in occupations at high risk of computerisation over an unspecified future period, "perhaps a decade or two".

    Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne — Economists, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

    "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?" Research/report

    Цитируется в Which trades actually resist automation, and why

  232. 232

    Изложенная позиция Nick Bostrom argues intelligence level and final goals are independent (the orthogonality thesis), and that goal-directed superintelligent agents would converge on sub-goals like self-preservation and resource acquisition regardless of terminal goal (instrumental convergence).

    Nick Bostrom — Author, "The Superintelligent Will: Motivation and Instrumental Rationality in Advanced Artificial Agents"

    Minds and Machines (preprint via nickbostrom.com) Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  233. 233

    Изложенная позиция United Nations Human Rights Council states that businesses have a responsibility to respect human rights and that victims of business-related abuse need access to remedy.

    United Nations Human Rights Council — Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (endorsed by Resolution 17/4)

    OHCHR Primary source

    Цитируется в Rights, personhood, and the moral status of AI

  234. 234

    Изложенная позиция David Chalmers treats an intelligence explosion via recursively self-improving AI as a serious epistemic possibility, and asks whether resulting superintelligent minds would be conscious and whether uploaded humans would retain personal identity.

    David Chalmers — Author, "The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis"

    Journal of Consciousness Studies, vol. 17, nos. 9-10 Primary source

    Цитируется в Religious and philosophical responses to AGI

  235. 235

    Изложенная позиция David MacKay lays out the physical arithmetic of energy consumption and concentrated supply, arguing modern civilization depends on energy sources far denser than most renewable alternatives can easily replace.

    David MacKay — Author, "Sustainable Energy — Without the Hot Air"

    withouthotair.com Primary source

    Цитируется в Protracted crisis vs. recovery

  236. 236

    Изложенная позиция Alan Robock et al. modeled that firestorms from a full-scale United States–Russia nuclear exchange would loft soot into the stratosphere and drop global temperatures to ice-age levels for years.

    Alan Robock et al. — Lead author, nuclear-winter climate-modeling study

    arXiv Primary source

    Цитируется в How an extinction event would actually unfold

  237. 237

    Изложенная позиция Edward L. Deci and Richard M. Ryan develops self-determination theory, arguing that autonomy, competence, and relatedness are basic psychological needs underlying human motivation.

    Edward L. Deci and Richard M. Ryan — Authors, "The 'What' and 'Why' of Goal Pursuits: Human Needs and the Self-Determination of Behavior"

    Psychological Inquiry Primary source

    Цитируется в Work, purpose and time when labor is less scarce

  238. 238

    Изложенная позиция Federal Communications Commission lists voluntary, noncommercial public communication—particularly emergency communication—as one of several purposes of the amateur radio service.

    Federal Communications Commission — 47 CFR § 97.1, Amateur Radio Service — Basis and Purpose

    Code of Federal Regulations (via Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute) Primary source

    Цитируется в Redundant and offline communications

  239. 239

    Изложенная позиция U.S. Department of State recounts how the 1958–1961 US-Soviet-UK voluntary nuclear test moratorium collapsed when the Soviets resumed testing in 1961, salvaged afterward only as the narrower Limited Test Ban Treaty.

    U.S. Department of State — Office of the Historian

    history.state.gov Primary source

    Цитируется в Last moves and shutdown attempts

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